Program

(For paper presentations, presenters are indictated in bold font.)

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

6 pm Networking Reception (by invitation) [Ashdown House]

Thursday, July 18, 2019

7:30 – 8:30 am Registration (continental breakfast provided) [Tang Center (Building E51), Outside Wong Auditorium]

8:30 – 8:50 am Opening Remarks [Tang Center (Building E51), Wong Auditorium]

8:50 – 9 am Tran sition to Samberg

9 – 10:15 am Session 1: Regular Presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Using Agent-Based Models to Simulate Strategic Behavior in Elections

          Walter Mebane (University of Michigan) , Fabricio Vasselai and Samuel Baltz

Discussant: In Song Kim (MIT)

          [Dining Room 3]

• Multi-Input Models for the Study of Affect in Political Videos

          Ludvic Rheault (University of Toronto) and Sophie Borwein

Discussant: Michelle Torres (Rice)

          [Dining Room 4]

• Discovery of Influential Text in Experiments Using Deep Neural Networks

          Luke Sanford (UCSD), Molly Roberts (UCSD) and Kevin Li

Discussant: David Carlson (Koc University)

          [Dining Room 5]

10:15 – 10:35 am Break

10:35 am – 12 pm Session 2: Short presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Paper 1: The Feedback Effects of a Market-Based Policy: Evidence from Public Opinion on the Affordable Care Act
  
  Daniel J. Hopkins (University of Pennsylvania) and William Hobbs
  
  Discussant: Robert Erikson (Columbia)
  
  Paper 2: Using the Audio from Telephone Surveys for Political Science Research
  
  Bryce Dietrich (University of Iowa) and Jeff Mondak
  
  Discussant: Ludvic Rheault (University of Toronto)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  

• Paper 1: Supervised Learning of Candidates’ Issue-Specific Positions Using Itemized Donations
  
  Zhao Li (Stanford University) and Adam Bonica
  
  Discussant: Benjamin Lauderdale (UCL)
  
  Paper 2: When Do Politicians Grandstand? Measuring Message Politics in Committee Hearings
  
  Ju Yeon Park (University of Pittsburgh)
  
  Discussant: Sarah Bouchat (Northwestern)
  
  [Dining Room 4] << Emerging Scholars Session >>
  
  
  
• Paper 1: Bracketing Bounds for Differences-in-Differences with an Application to Voter ID Laws
  
  Luke Keele (University of Pennsylvania) , Raiden Hasegawa and Dylan Small
  
  Discussant: Danny Hidalgo (MIT)
  
  Paper 2: Augmented Panel Data Models with Staggered Adoption
  
  Avi Feller (UC-Berkeley) , Eli Ben-Michael and Jesse Rothstein
  
  Discussant: Joseph Ornstein (WUSTL)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

12 – 2 pm Lunch & Poster Session I [Samberg, 7^th Floor]

2pm – 3:15 pm Session 3: Regular presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• A Parallel Evolutionary Metropolis-Try Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm for Spatial State Spaces (Link to the Author’s Website)
  
  Wendy K. Tam Cho (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and Yan Liu
  
  Discussant: Santiago Olivella (UNC Chapel Hill)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  

• What Do We Learn About Preferences from Conjoint Experiments?
  
  Korhan Kocak (Princeton), Scott Abramson (Rochester) and Asya Magazinnik (MIT)
  
  Discussant: Naoki Egami (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  

• Word Embeddings: What Works, What Doesn’t, and How to Tell the Difference for Applied Research
  
  Pedro Rodriguez (New York University) and Arthur Spirling
  
  Discussant: Brandon Stewart (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

3:15 – 3:30 pm Break

3:30 – 5 pm Session 4: Short presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Paper 1: A Validation Study of Individual-level Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions
  
  Ahra Wu (Workplace Analytics, LLC) , Andrew R. Wood and Randy T. Stevenson
  
  Discussant: Mike Alvarez (Caltech)
  
  Paper 2: On Theory and Identification: When and Why We Need Theory for Causal Identification
  
  Tara Slough (UC-Berkeley)
  
  Discussant: Kevin Munger (Penn State)
  
  [Dining Room 3] << Emerging Scholars Session >>
  
  
  
• Paper 1: Contagious Political Concerns: Identifying Unemployment Shock Information Transmission Using the Danish Population Network
  
  Horacio Larreguy (Harvard University) , James E. Alt, Amalie Jensen, David D. Lassen and John Marshall
  
  Discussant: Shahryar Minhas (Michigan State University)
  
  Paper 2: Do Gender Quotas Cause a Decline in Corruption?
  
  Justin Esarey (Wake Forest University) , Natalie Valdes
  
  Discussant: Frederick Boehmke (University of Iowa)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
• Paper 1: Polynomial Regression as an Alternative to Neural Nets
  
  Peter Mohanty (Stanford University) , Norm Matloff, Xi Cheng and Bohdan Khomtchouk
  
  Discussant: Neal Beck (NYU)
  
  Paper 2: Rehabilitating the Regression: Honest and Valid Causal Inference through Machine Learning
  
  Marc Ratkovic (Princeton University)
  
  Discussant: Matthew Blackwell (Harvard)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

5:30 – 7 pm IDSS Reception [Stata Center (Building 32), R&D Common]

Friday, July 19, 2019

8 – 9 am Continental Breakfast [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

9 – 10:15 am Session 5: Regular Presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• The Elephant in the Chamber? Incorporating Tweets about Trump into Congressional Ideal Point Estimates
  
  Sunshine Hillygus (Duke University) , Greg Spell, Larry Carin and Brian Guay
  
  Discussant: Chris Warshaw (GWU)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  

• Tools for Topic Model Validation: Towards Procedures for Validating Topics as Measures [Appendix]
  
  Jacob Montgomery (WUSTL) , Luwei Ying, Brandon Stewart
  
  Discussant: Arthur Spirling (NYU)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
• Experimental Design and Statistical Inference for Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Population Distribution
  
  Brandon de la Cuesta (Princeton), Naoki Egami (Princeton), and Kosuke Imai (Harvard)
  
  Discussant: Dean Knox (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

10:15 – 10:35 am Break

10:35 – 12 pm Session 6: Short presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Paper 1: Does Authoritarian Propaganda Ever Respond to Public Opinion?
  
  Shuai Jin (UMass-Boston)
  
  Discussant: Molly Roberts (UCSD)
  
  Paper 2: Artificial Communities and Bait-and-Switch Messaging of Russian Trolls on Twitter During the 2016 Election
  
  Alexandra Cirone (Cornell University) and William Hobbs (Cornell University)
  
  Discussant: Nick Beauchamp (Northeastern University)
  
  [Dining Room 3] << Emerging Scholars Session >>
  
  
• Paper 1: An Automated Approach to Measuring Competitive Issue Framing at Scale
  
  Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Vincent Hopkins (Simon Fraser University)
  
  Discussant: Seth Hill (UCSD)
  
  Paper 2: The Social Network Effects of Drone Strikes
  
  Paolo Bertolotti (MIT IDSS) , Ali Jadbabaie, Fotini Christia
  
  Discussant: Adeline Lo (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
• Paper 1: Navigated Weighting to Improve Inverse Probability Weighting for Missing Data Problems and Causal Inference
  
  Hiroto Katsumata (Gakushuin University and MIT)
  
  Discussant: Adam Glynn (Emory)
  
  Paper 2: The Stability-Controlled Trial? Assessing the effect of new or newly-popular treatments without randomization
  
  Chad Hazlett (UCLA)
  
  Discussant: Fredrik Savje (Yale)
  
  [Dining Room 5]
  
  

12 – 2:00 pm Lunch & Poster Session II [Samberg, 7^th floor]

2:00 – 3:15 pm Session 7: Regular presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Does Politicized Media Distort Political Discourse? Evidence from Fox News Channel
  
  Elena Labzina (ETH Zurich) and Elliott Ash
  
  Discussant: Chris Lucas (WUSTL)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  
  
• A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data
  
  Yiqing Xu (Stanford) , Licheng Liu and Ye Wang
  
  Discussant: Matthew Lebo (Stony Brook)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
• Post-Modern Bayesian Inference
  
  Jeff Gill (American University) , Andreas Murr (U of Warwick) and Richard Traunmueller
  
  Discussant: Jonathan Katz (Caltech)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

3:15 – 3:30 pm Transition to Wong Auditorium

3:30 – 4:30 pm Special Session: LGBTQ Research and Political Methodology [Wong Auditorium]

• Patrick J. Egan (NYU)
• Katherine McCabe (Rutgers University)
• Patrick R. Miller (U of Kansas)
• Moderator: Danny Hidalgo (MIT)

4:30 – 5:00 pm SPM Business Meeting [Wong Auditorium]

5 – 5:45 pm Panel Discussion on Non-academic Careers [Wong Auditorium]

• Adriana Crespo-Tenorio (Facebook)
• Winston Chou (Facebook)
• Joe Williams (YouGov)
• Moderator: Pablo Barbera (USC/Facebook)

7:30 – 9:30 pm Dinner [Stratton Student Center (Building W20), Lobdell Dining Room]

Saturday, July 20, 2019

8 – 8:50 am Breakfast Roundtable Discussions [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Journal Editors’ Roundtable: Publishing Methodology Papers in Political Science Journals [Dining Room 4]
  • Tom Clark (Emory, Journal of Politics )
  • Jeff Gill (American University, Political Analysis)
  • Kosuke Imai (Harvard, Journal of Causal Inference)
  • Benjamin Lauderdale (UCL, American Political Science Review)
  • Moderator: Suzie Linn (Penn State)
    
    
    

• Roundtable Discussion: What Impact Will Data Science Have on Universities and Political Science? [Dining Room 5]
  • Henry Brady (UC Berkeley)
  • Gary King (Harvard)
  • Rocio Titiunik (Princeton)
  • Moderator: In Song Kim (MIT)
    
    
    

9 – 10:15 am Session 8: Regular Presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• A Bayesian Transition Network Topic Model for Inferring Conceptual Networks
  
  Nicholas Beauchamp (Northeastern University)
  
  Discussant:Burt Monroe (Penn State)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  

• The Bias is Built In: How Administrative Records Mask Racially Biased Policing
  
  Dean Knox (Princeton), Will Lowe and Jonathan Mummolo (Princeton)
  
  Discussant: Moritz Marbach (ETH Zurich)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
• Tracing Causal Paths from Experimental and Observational Data
  
  Xiang Zhou (Harvard University) and Teppei Yamamoto (MIT)
  
  Discussant: Rocio Titiunik (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

10:15 – 10:35 am Break

10:35 am – 12 pm Session 9: Short presentations [Samberg, 6^th Floor]

• Paper 1: Generalized Ideal Point Models for Time-Varying and Missing-Data Inference
  
  Robert Kubinec (NYU Abu Dhabi)
  
  Discussant: Alex Tahk (UW Madison)
  
  Paper 2: Inference Using Algorithmic Districting
  
  Micah Altman (MIT) , Brian Amos and Michael P. McDonald
  
  Discussant: John Londregan (Princeton)
  
  [Dining Room 3]
  
  

• Paper 1: Estimating Proposal and Status Quo Locations for Legislation using Cosponsorships, Roll-Call Votes, and Interest Group Bill Positions
  
  Jesse M. Crosson (University of Michigan) , Geoffrey Lorenz, Alexander C. Furnas
  
  Discussant: Devin Caughey (MIT)
  
  Paper 2: The Effects of Firms’ Lobbying on Resource Misallocation
  
  In Song Kim (MIT) and Frederico Huneeus
  
  Discussant: Jamie Monogan (University of Georgia)
  
  [Dining Room 4]
  
  
  

• Paper 1: Design Based Inference for Spatial Experiments
  
  Ye Wang (NYU) , Peter Aronow and Cyrus Samii
  
  Discussant: Anton Strezhnev (NYU)
  
  Paper 2: Causal inference with Misspecified Exposure Mappings
  
  Fredrik Savje (Yale University)
  
  Discussant: Chad Hazlett (UCLA)
  
  [Dining Room 5]

12:00 – 1:30 pm  Lunch [Samberg, 7^th Floor]